Introduction: The consensus reached between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their first meeting in the last five years on October 23 in Kazan on the sidelines of the BRICS summit aims to improve the bilateral relations between the two countries. This meeting followed an agreement between India and China to disengage troops along their disputed border, aiming to resolve a four-year military standoff. In their meeting, closely watched by the world leaders and business community the two leaders instructed the Special Representatives for the boundary mechanism to meet to discuss further steps for peace restoration.
The success of the meeting outcome depends on the border management issue, which has been the bone of contention between the two nations. India and China share a 3,488-kilometer land border across challenging terrains, including the Himalayan region known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India and China have a dispute broadly divided into three sectors: Western Sector (Aksai Chin- Taken by China in 1962 war, presently administered by China but claimed by India as part of Ladakh), Middle Sector (Small contested areas in states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand), and Eastern Sector (Arunachal Pradesh- Indian state which China claims as part of Southern Tibet).
At present six friction points exist at the border between China and India. India and China have agreed to disengage at about four friction points in the past: Pangong Tso (Lake) – North and South Banks, Gogra Post (Patrolling Point 17A), Hot Springs (Patrolling Point 15), and Galwan Valley. In a way India and China took small steps through military level talks for the establishment of peace after the Galwan clashes in 2020 but with the leaders’ level meeting in October this process got a shot in the arm for long-term peace.
Just in the subsequent week after the historic Xi-Modi meeting the disengagement of troops took place at the remaining two key friction points Depsang Plains and Demchok in eastern Ladakh. Significantly, the Indian Army has resumed patrolling in these regions, for the first time since disengagement in the spirit of the agreement after the talks between the two leaders.
Despite the huge economic opportunities between the two nations the border disputes have spoiled the relations. In the aftermath of talks between Modi and Xi the officials in both the countries are upbeat to take the relations to new heights. Even as the talks between the two leaders have diffused the crisis for now but how the two nations will progress to build long-term peace and harmony at the border will have an impact on the wider geopolitical region.
Evaluation by India and tangibility of consensus: The governments of both countries have endorsed the outcome of the meeting. The Indian officials in the Ministry of External Affairs are optimistic after the meeting between Modi and Xi. According to them, a process has been set in motion to bring the India-China relations back to normal.
According to the MEA official statement, the two leaders decided to restart dialogue mechanisms between Foreign Ministers and other officials to “stabilize and rebuild bilateral relations” that have been virtually suspended on most issues other than the boundary situation
In the meeting, the two leaders tasked Special Representatives on the boundary question, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister and senior Politburo member of the Chinese Communist Party Wang Yi to meet at an “early date” to take forward the larger questions of resolving the boundary dispute.
Also, In the meeting India promised its full support to China’s SCO presidency” next year. India extends its support to China at SCO even though Xi Jinping has not attended the G20 leaders’ summit hosted by India in 2023. This indicates that India is ready to embrace China to make progress for peace and security.
However, the real test of the consensus would be on four parameters: De-escalation, Disengagement, De-induction, and Implementation of CBMs.
The relations between the two countries are passing through the stage of disengagement but De-escalation and De-induction would be another two important steps after which only CBMs can be decided.
Nevertheless, a new zeal is visible in the position of both nations as they put relations back on track.
The meeting between the two leaders certainly gives a message to the officials to expedite the efforts for long-lasting peace. In the meeting, the two leaders welcomed the solution reached on border issues and reiterated that the implementation work should continue for regional and global security.
The two countries want to quickly return to the status quo ante for traditional patrolling along LAC without any hindrance and interruptions which will be the true barometer of the success of the meeting between the leaders of the two countries.
Despite the upbeat mood in both camps, there is a caution that there must be regular diplomatic efforts and CBMs to ensure long-lasting peace.
This is so because in the past the previous bilateral agreements have been violated by China. Indian officials are calling to maintain a verification process to ensure China’s adherence to the agreed terms. Certainly, India will keep an eye on the implementation process of the agreement.
Mechanism for implementing the agreement: India is looking at activating bilateral mechanisms on various fronts. In fact, After the Modi-Xi meeting, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil in November. In the meeting, the two leaders reviewed progress in disengagement efforts in Ladakh and discussed the next steps in strengthening bilateral ties.
This has been followed by a 32nd Meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs held in New Delhi on December 5 this year.
According to MEA, “The two sides positively affirmed the implementation of the most recent disengagement agreement which completed the resolution of the issues that emerged in 2020.”
In the meeting, the two sides reviewed the situation in border areas and reflected on the lessons learned from the events of 2020 to prevent their recurrence.
Stressing the need for regular exchanges and contacts at the diplomatic and military level they agreed on the need for effective border management and maintenance of peace & tranquillity.
Significantly, as per the direction of the leaders of the two countries in Kazan in October at the sidelines of the BRICS summit, the much-anticipated talks between special representatives of the two countries to discuss border issues took place in Beijing on December 18. India, China’s Special Representatives for the border mechanism, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi after their meeting agreed on six consensuses including the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, trans-border river cooperation, Nathu-La border trade.
This was the first meeting of the special representatives since 2020. They emphasized the need to ensure peaceful conditions on the ground so that issues on the border do not hold back the normal development of bilateral relations.
Apart from the Special representative mechanism some of the key bilateral mechanisms that the two countries will promote for regular exchanges and contacts are: Leaders’ level bilateral summits, Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC), Border Personnel Meetings (BPMs), India-China Joint Economic Group, and Educational and Cultural Exchanges.
A holistic approach with an aim for long-lasting fruitful relations through these institutions will help in rebuilding trust which was seriously eroded after the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020.
Challenges: China has global ambitions that many times clash with India’s sovereign position in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indian Ocean apart from the differences on the land border in the Northern front. Amidst this scenario building trust for peace will be very difficult.
Also, other issues such as China’s support of India’s arch-adversary Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and trade imbalances are the other key issues.
According to the Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar managing bilateral ties in the long term poses a challenge as it involves establishing an equilibrium in the disputed border areas.
Aksai Chin remains another contested issue between both the countries. This area covers approximately 37,244 square kilometres which was taken away by China in the 1962 war. It is crucial for China as it provides a link between Tibet and Xinjiang. While for India it is important from the point of view of providing a strategic equality vis-a-vis China and territorial integration.
This issue keeps simmering up in Indian politics quite often. In more recent times, on 28 March 2023, External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar addressed the Lok Sabha, reiterating that China is in illegal occupation of approximately 38,000 square kilometres of Indian territory in Aksai Chin. He emphasized India’s unwavering commitment to reclaiming this area, stating, “We have never conceded this territory, and we will never concede it.”
The abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 further fuelled the animosity as after this the state was bifurcated and Ladakh was made a separate Union Territory. While India says the move aimed to allow total integration of Jammu and Kashmir with the mainland the Chinese side contests that this was an attempt to dilute the claims of China covering part of Ladakh.
The other issue of disagreement is the development of infrastructure by both nations in border areas fuelling mutual suspicions. Even as India seeks to match China in terms of the development of infrastructure at the border this causes resentment by China. These infrastructure projects are especially aimed at getting strategic advantages while ensuring troop mobility over each other.Infrastructure development was one of the reasons for heightened tensions, particularly in areas like Galwan Valley and Doklam.
For example, China has made significant upgrades to airbases in Tibet and Xinjiang while India has completed projects like the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DS-DBO) road to enhance access to strategic locations near the LAC.
Overall there are too many challenges in Sino-India ties that can only be overcome by the willingness of the top leadership of the two countries to provide solutions for enduring peace. Also, cultural and people-to-people contact will go a long way in making way for peace as public perception of each other is at the lowest ebb in the last few decades.
A common interest in promoting trade: One of the key reasons for the recent agreement between the two nations was that despite huge potential the trade was performing below its potential. More so for the Indian government which was facing serious pressure from Indian business houses to normalise the trade relations.
Despite a huge trade deficit with China, India is keen to harness the full potential of bilateral trade. Similarly, China wants to take advantage of India’s emergence as the fastest-growing major economy. India had put the precondition that its relationship with China can’t improve until border tensions are eased. Now with the recent detente achieved it will provide an opportunity for more pronounced economic policies.
China was India’s top trading partner last year despite the tensions between both nations. The bilateral trade between the two nations totalled $118.4 billion last year.
One of the top-ranking Indian officials chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has been the strongest advocate of Chinese FDI that could accelerate Beijing’s long-term plans to invest in top Indian industries.
There is huge potential for both countries in bilateral trade. China’s growing consumer market provides ample opportunity for Indian companies, especially in the IT, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural sectors. Also, India known as a global pharma hub can benefit from the large Chinese market with medical supplies to China which has a high demand for generic drugs.
Technological collaboration in areas including AI, renewable energy, and infrastructure development provides a big scope for mutual gainful trade.
Reasons for the thaw between India and China
The recent detente comes at a time when both countries are facing several strategic challenges given the present geopolitical tensions across the globe. Just next to India’s backyard in Bangladesh, the friendly regime of Sheikh Hasina was usurped by a more radical regime led by Muhammad Yunus who has been serving as Chief Adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh since 8 August 2024.
The anti-India rant by Bangladesh in recent times has prompted India to strengthen its relations with other neighbours including China. India faces a paradoxical situation where it has been seeking to cement its ties with neighbours but these countries are slipping out of its reach. The classical example of this would be the Maldives. Most of the countries in India’s immediate neighbourhood including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Maldives are inimical to India. Except for Bhutan India has no formidable ally in the region. Also, other neighbours Nepal and Sri Lanka are covertly under the influence of China and have been taking political stances that have caused discomfiture to India. With a rapprochement with China India can look forward to further improving its relations with its neighbours Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Three of India’s neighbours Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan are under the grip of fundamentalist Islamists. India has long faced the issue of cross-border terrorism from Pakistan and the porous border with Bangladesh has resulted in mass migration from it which is threatening a demographic shift in a few of the North Eastern states of India including Assam. Against this backdrop, India is looking to strengthen partnerships with China and other East and South East Asian nations in which India’s Act East policy is playing a key role.
Similarly, China which has global ambitions has also been facing several challenges at the geopolitical level. Primordially China is competing with the USA for a bigger influence at the strategic level. It has been successful in carving a niche in many parts of Asia and Africa. The incoming Trump administration in the USA is viewed as having a more tough stance towards China. In his previous term from 2017-2021, he imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods. Furthermore, more USA challenged Chinese authoritarianism in the South China Sea. The Quad Alliance comprising of USA, India, Japan, and Australia to counterbalance China’s power was further strengthened. The Chinese government expecting a US tilt from India wasted no time in normalising the ties with India in Kazan.
Also, China not only faces border disputes with India but has problems with other neighbours including Bhutan, Japan, Vietnam,Philippines, and Malaysia. China claims parts of northern and western Bhutan including the Doklam Plateau leading to the 2017 standoff with India, which intervened to support Bhutan. China and Japan have a maritime territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. China claims nearly the entire South China Sea which is resisted by its other neighbours including Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia. Additionally, it has minor border disputes with Nepal, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan
Given the complexities of the current geo-political situation, the two Asian giants look forward to normalising their ties which has huge security and economic benefits.
India has been facing Western criticism over its purchase of Russian oil and weapons amidst the Russian-Ukraine war. In fact, India and China buy 90 percent of Russian oil. A thaw in relations with China may translate into thwarting international pressure through a common position at the global and multilateral level. China and India enjoy cordial relations with Russia and all three countries are important members of BRICS. China fully understands that its global ambitions cannot be achieved without bolstering ties with its neighbours so there has been a shift in its hostile stance.
Additionally, India and China work shoulder to shoulder in global forums like BRICS to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. They have a common stance on the issues of countering terrorism and promoting multilateralism. These platforms provide a common perspective to both nations which they will be looking at to bolster the relations.
Conclusion: The recent consensus achieved between India and China, especially after the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping has paved the way for more fruitful relations. Recently with an aim to build peace- India and China’s Special Representatives for the border mechanism, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing and agreed on six consensuses including the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, trans-border river cooperation, and Nathu-La border trade.
However, a head start has been made but the path ahead may be difficult because in the past the previous bilateral agreements have been violated by China. The future pace of bilateral agreements will depend on the diplomatic manoeuvring of top leadership to overcome contentious matters to reach a common ground. Both nations understand the potential of their bilateral trade and seek to expand it exponentially which may provide a big leverage for maintaining a cordial relationship.
Also, the two nations have a mutual interest in several international issues including combating terrorism and promoting multilateralism. These factors may provide more stability to Sino-Indian ties. The incoming Trump administration trade policies which are expected to be more protectionist may bring India and China together in resisting it and promoting multilateral trade agreements, such as those under the World Trade Organization.