I. Introduction
– Overview of India’s diplomatic engagement in the Middle East
India has been walking a diplomatic tightrope in the Middle East balancing conflicting interests and engaging relevant parties. One of the key foundations of India’s engagement with major powers in the region such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt is based on similar interests in curbing extremist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and ISIS. Over the years since 2014 Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been the core of India’s Middle East policy while Iran, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq forming the immediate periphery with energy security, the safety of the Indian community and connectivity considerations being the most crucial aspect of India’s engagement with Middle East.
India is reaping the benefits of its clear policy regarding the Middle Eastern powers. One of the regional powers, Israel has gone the extra mile in supporting India’s stand on Kashmir by providing surveillance equipment, and radar technology to police in India-administered Kashmir. Even UAE and Saudi Arabia are presently endorsing the Indian point of view on Kashmir. The Emirati investment in the Indian side of Kashmir is further boosting the bilateral economic relations.
Dynamics of trade are guiding India-Middle East relations. India aims to promote cooperation in several sectors such as food and water security, energy, space, transportation, health, and technology, including support for clean technology and decarbonization. The Middle East is very important for Indian policymakers, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Significantly, India and the UAE have extensive cooperation in the space sector. At the same time, Abu Dhabi has committed to over $100 billion worth of investments in Indian sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and renewable energy.
It is a diplomatic win for India as it signed a deal with UAE that will allow it to settle non-oil trade in Indian rupees instead of the US dollar.
India’s Look West Policy (as in the Indian context Middle East is referred to as West Asia) has been complemented by the GCC member states’ “Look East” policy, with a focus on India, China, and other countries to their East.
The groups such as I2U2 comprising India, Israel, the UAE, and the US, focus on economic growth and trade synergies, as evident in its several meetings which have been taking place since July 2022.
– Historical context shaping India’s foreign policy in the region
India has had a close relationship with the Middle East for the last 2,000 years which is based on historical and civilizational ties. There is a recorded history of trade, religion, and cultural ties between India and the Middle East. The Indian sub-continent relations with the Middle East grew stronger during the British Raj involving both economic and strategic aspects.
Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser and India under Jawaharlal Nehru became the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1955. During the height of the Cold War, India kept its distance from the Middle East due to its non-aligned status in the Cold War. Since its independence in 1947 India has adopted the policy of opposing Western influence in the region and showing solidarity with Palestinians. Though India changed its policy towards Israel in the subsequent years and in 1992 established full diplomatic relations with the country. Also rapid growth of the Middle Eastern nations since the 1970s has made India change its position towards it. After Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014 he has taken special care in strengthening ties with the Middle Eastern countries.
II. Strategic Interests
– Economic ties and energy security:
India has diversified economic relations with countries in the Middle East. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq are its major trading partners in the Middle East. The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner, while Saudi Arabia and Iraq are its fourth and seventh-largest trading partners respectively. At the same time, India has significant trade relations with Iran and Israel. India’s trade with the UAE has increased by over 38 percent to $88 billion after the signing of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in 2022. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is an important trade partner of India which is the source of 18 percent of India’s crude oil imports. Saudi investments in Indian infrastructure — railways, roads, ports, and shipping — are growing, as are investments in India’s manufacturing and digital sectors. Moreover, India and Oman are also inching closer towards finalizing a CEPA.
India imports 87 percent of its oil requirements and the Middle East accounts for over 60 percent of India’s crude oil imports. To meet India’s over-dependence on imported oil the UAE is lending support to India in building India’s strategic oil reserves for addressing its energy security concerns. India is also working with other Middle Eastern nations to harness the potential of renewable energy sources.
Not only investment and energy, the Middle East is the source of high remittances for India. India has a sizable migrant population in the Gulf where 8.9 million Indians reside. However, the biggest destinations for Indians are UAE and Saudi Arabia where 3.5 million and 2.5 million Indians live respectively. The Gulf countries are the source of fifty percent of India’s over $80 billion annual remittances.
At the same time, India has not only maintained closer ties with just Arab Gulf countries but also with other regional powers such as Iran and Israel. Despite geopolitical challenges India has maintained very good ties with Iran while Israel is one of the top three suppliers of defense equipment to India and supplies 43 percent of its arms exports to India.
– Geopolitical considerations and regional stability
The energy-rich resources of the Middle East especially in the Gulf region and its location at the crossroads of major international trade routes hold immense significance for India. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the diplomatic crisis with Qatar, and the Yemen civil war can cause challenges for India’s relations with countries in the Middle East.
The Syrian civil war and the rise of extremist groups such as ISIS are the biggest impediment to regional stability. Also, the Israel-Palestine conflict has threatened the stability of the region having spill-over effects on India’s relations with other countries in the region. This also poses security concerns for Indian citizens residing in the region.
Also, the increasing enmity between Iran and its South Asian nuclear neighbor Pakistan can further destabilize the region. Iran recently launched strikes at targets in Pakistan and Iraq aimed at Sunni militant groups. Also, US strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen have caused no love lost between Iran and the US. The US and Saudi Arabia have long accused Iran of aiding Houthis. It has a deep impact on India as it can cause fissures in relations with Iran as India may itself have to take action against Houthis who have been hitting Indian ships through drone attacks in the Red Sea. At the same time, the Israel-Palestine conflict is not abating even as efforts to deliver aid to Gaza continue.
III. Diplomatic Relations with Key Countries
– Saudi Arabia: The key factors guiding India- Saudi Arabia bilateral relations are defense, strategy, security, investments, science and technology, education alongside trade, energy, and Diaspora factors. As Saudi Arabia embarks on the path of modernization with its ambitious domestic policy such as ‘Vision 2030’ it opens extensive economic opportunities for international players including India.
In the Indian context the issues of ongoing civil war in Syria, US-Iran hostility, and the Palestine issue are among the high priorities in the Middle East. Given the volatility in the Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia can play a critical role in stabilizing the region as the peace and security of the Gulf region and the Indian subcontinent are closely interlinked. India has also kept a close eye on the situation in Yemen.
The increasing radicalization and terrorism in South Asia apart from the mutual concerns for cyber and maritime security in the region opens the opportunity for growing Indo-Saudi ties.
Iran: This country in the Middle East is India’s near-neighbor. They shared a border until 1947. Iran also has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves which hold high significance for India which remains highly dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. One of the key aspects of India’s relations with Iran involves the development of the Chabahar Port which will create a strategic transit route for India bypassing Pakistan. This will also enhance Indian connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Also, India and Iran are part of the INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor) which is a major transportation network connecting India and Iran to Europe. The American sanctions on Iran owing to its nuclear program through the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) have caused a dilemma for India as it seeks to balance its strategic autonomy with adherence to U.S. sanctions.
– Israel: India and Israel are strategic partners. The full diplomatic relations between the two nations were established in 1992. In July 2017 Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel. Later Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited India in January 2018.
Significantly Israel is the third largest arms exporter to India after the US and Russia. The turnover of all defense trade exceeds over 1 billion U.S. dollars.
Even as Indo-Israeli relations are on the upper trajectory India has steadfastly kept its position on Palestine unchanged. On February 9, 2018 PM Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit Palestine -Ramallah.
– Other significant partnerships: India has very cordial relations with most of the Middle Eastern countries including UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Iraq. These nations are not only very key trade partners but also important from a strategic point of view for India.
Particularly the Gulf countries provide a wider scope for cooperation in the areas of economic and security assistance which involves building ports and infrastructure, acquiring military bases, and brokering peace between warring parties and states. India needs to bring scale and depth to its regional initiatives on connectivity and security in the Indian Ocean.
IV. Security and Defense Cooperation
– Counterterrorism efforts
India as well as the countries in the Middle East has been victims of extremism and terrorism. So in addition to the growing ties in the defense and security ties, the emphasis is also on the battle against terrorism and radicalization. India now has an extradition treaty with many Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia.
Many of the countries in the region are now endorsing India’s stand on terrorism and non-state actors emanating from Pakistan. Several countries such as Oman, Saudi Arabia, and UAE have been supporting India on the issue of combating terrorism threats. India signed an important treaty with Saudi Arabia called the Riyadh Declaration in 2010 which also looks after the aspects of combating terrorism. Many nations in the Middle East supported India after the Pulwama attack in India highlighting the role of the international community in combating the proxy war being launched from across the border.
Similarly, Kuwait “as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2019 played a critical role in declaring JeM chief Masood Azhar a global terrorist (a move opposed by Pakistan). It also played a key role in the UNSC condemnation of the Pulwama terror strike
India is also getting most wanted fugitives and terrorists extradited from Gulf countries mostly from UAE and Saudi Arabia. It includes individuals wanted for their involvement in the 26/11 attacks, 1993 Mumbai bombings as well as members of terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Indian Mujahideen.
– Defense collaborations and arms trade
Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) was conceived by the Indian Navy and was established in 2008. It consists of several members from many Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Oman, Qatar, and UAE. Multilateral naval exercise of the Indian Navy called MILAN has participation from many of the Gulf nations. Also, there is open access for India at Oman’s Port of Duqm SEZ, Indian Ocean’s one of the largest deep-sea ports.
The sharing of information, military exercises, and military training is the cornerstone of India’s relations with the countries in the Middle East. Also, Indian defense ships have been making a port of call in several Middle East countries. The cadets from Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia have received training at the National Defense Academy (NDA) in India.
India has robust defense relations with the countries in the Middle East especially Israel which is the third biggest importer of defense equipment to India. Meanwhile, India exports defense equipment to Gulf countries such as Oman. With Saudi Arabia, the emphasis is on manufacturing dual-use products. The two countries can design for both military and civilian purposes including commercial assistance such as electronic boards and computers developed for armored vehicles, public transport, and industrial applications.
V. Economic Partnerships
– Trade relations
India’s total exports to Middle Eastern- GCC countries have been USD 33.20 billion while India’s exports to the other Middle Eastern nations were USD 8.11 billion in the period of April-November (fiscal year 2023-24). India’s total imports from GCC countries were USD 64.61 billion while imports from the other Middle East nations were USD 22.25 billion in the period of April-November (fiscal year 2023-24).
Some of the items that India exports to the Middle East region are Refined Petroleum, jewelry, and Diamonds while the major import items are Crude Petroleum, Diamonds, and Gold.
– Investment initiatives and economic collaborations
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a planned economic corridor that aims to create a comprehensive transportation network, comprising rail, road, and sea routes connecting India, the Middle East, and Europe. The corridor is proposed from India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece.
Also, major players such as UAE plans to invest as much as $50 billion in India. The two countries have been seeking to bolster ties over the past decade and aim to increase non-oil bilateral trade to $100 billion.
The UAE has also shown willingness to invest $2 billion to set up food parks across India as part of the I2U2 initiative to help tackle food insecurity in South Asia and the Middle East. For this purpose efforts will be made to rope in private sector firms from Israel and America to reduce food waste and spoilage, conserve fresh water, and employ renewable energy sources at the food parks.
Many of the Middle Eastern countries are also members of the International Solar Alliance including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel, and Syria. This organization has been started by India and France promoting solar energy technologies as a means for bringing energy access, ensuring energy security, and driving energy transition in its member countries.
Also, the UAE became the first Gulf nation to allow transactions using RuPay. After UAE, Saudi, Bahrain, and Oman have allowed India’s UPI & RuPay Cards System to be used.
VI. Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges
– Soft power diplomacy
Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have started to practice yoga. The International Day of Yoga celebrated on June 21 every year is celebrated in many Middle Eastern countries including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Hindu temples have been built in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and Oman. A new Hindu Temple in Dubai opened in Jebel Ali in January 2024. The existing Shiva Mandir and Gurudwara were moved to this new location.
Bollywood films and music are very popular in the Middle East. Indian actors such as Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan have a huge fan following in this region. The recently released movie ‘Jawan’ by Indian heartthrob Shah Rukh Khan became a massive hit in the Middle East. There was high attendance in the theaters in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain to watch the movie.
– Educational and cultural exchanges
India and countries from the Middle East have wide cooperation in the field of higher education. Many students from the Middle East are studying in several reputed Indian Universities. India has signed many agreements with the nations in the Middle East to foster cooperation in the education sector. Last year in November India signed a MoU with the UAE which facilitates student and faculty mobility. Also, Indian institutes like the Indian Institute of Technology, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, and the University of Delhi have been associating with universities in the Middle East. For example, the agreement with Saudi Arabia in the Field of Youth and Sport and other MoUs on education is giving a further boost to bilateral relations. Further, the Indian government runs several scholarship programs for students from the Middle East.
Middle East locations in the UAE are very popular with Indian travelers. Similarly, India targets the burgeoning Middle East market to attract tourists from the region. India wants to provide a suitable platform for MICE-related activities in India. Also, India is becoming an important destination for medical tourism for citizens from Middle Eastern nations.
Indian ancient medical system Ayurveda is a recognized system of medicine in countries such as UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Also, the UAE played a critical role in the adoption of International Yoga Day to be celebrated on June 21 by the UN.
VII. Challenges and Opportunities
– Regional conflicts and their impact
The Middle East has a long history of conflicts between the nations in the region. Also, militant groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and ISIS have a very active presence in the region. In the recent escalation of tensions, Iran, one of the Middle Eastern powers, launched missile attacks on Pakistan, its South Asian neighbor and a nuclear power. Now, Pakistan and Iran have agreed to de-escalate the tensions. They have agreed that their envoys will return to their posts easing tensions for diplomatic talks. But damage in goodwill is far from being restored.
Moreover, the Hamas and Israel war continues with no sign of respite. On October 7 last year, Hamas launched a devastating missile attack on Israel prompting Israel to take a full-fledged military campaign against Hamas which despite the international pressure is not coming to an end.
Recently the US and the UK struck eight Houthi targets over Red Sea shipping attacks with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands. Dozens of ships have been attacked by Houthis since November threatening international maritime trade and raising concern about the impact on the global economy.
For India, there are many concerns about these latest challenges. The Israel-Hamas war can impact the supply of oil to India as it is highly dependent on oil supply from the Middle East. There are apprehensions that the elevated oil prices could shoot up the import costs and increase prices for commodities and foodstuffs.
– Emerging opportunities for cooperation
There seems to be ground for rapprochement in the Middle East as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have buried their long-standing altercation, while Turkey and UAE are engaging in talks, and Iran and Saudi Arabia also trying to mend the fences. Egypt and Turkey too are back to negotiations while Syria has been readmitted into the Arab League fold.
These developments augur well for India. Earlier India used to take a balanced stand when faced with conflicting situations such as between Iran and Saudi Arabia or Israel and Palestine. However now it is taking a position which suits its interest the best. There is now de-hyphenation in India’s Middle East policy without necessarily shying away from leaning to one side if its interests demand. Notably, India has also made it clear that it will no longer be apprehensive of engaging in regional or multilateral initiatives if this serves its interests.
VIII. Relations with major powers
How to manage relations with the United States, Russia, and China while increasing influence in the region?
India is a member of the I2U2 bloc comprising India, Israel, UAE, and the USA. Also, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is in the pipeline. These aspects of India’s engagement in the Middle East add to its influence in the region. This is New Delhi’s indirect response to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt became members of the BRICS in January 2024 which are also India’s major economic partners. This augurs well for India.
India is closely associated with both the US and Russia. In the region many times US and Russian interests clash. Amidst this scenario, India is choosing to independently bolster its ties with the nations of the Middle East. Also, India has been taking a position on the Israel-Hamas war which suits its interests well. Initially, in the escalation post-October 7 India supported Israel but soon returned to a balanced position supporting a two-state solution and promised humanitarian assistance to Gaza.
A Japanese tanker linked to Israel was hit off the coast of India in December 2023. The US blamed Iran, but Tehran dismissed such accusations. Amid Iran-US tensions India is not taking sides but nurturing its relations with them independently.
Also, China is emerging as a major power in the region. One of its biggest successes in the region has been to encourage dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. After the meeting China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia reiterated to work together to promote international peace and security.
India’s diplomatic motto has been “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (“One Earth, One Family, One Future”). India will do well to engage all the major powers on an equal footing to look after its strategic and economic interests in the region.